Game 5: A Crushing Loss

Probably like many of you, I find it difficult to sleep after BYU loses. Does that mean I care too much? Probably, but it is the life of a sports fan.

Next week after my head has cleared I’m going to dive into the reasons for why this team is so bad. There’s no other way to say it. This could be the worst BYU team of my lifetime. A really poor defense mixed with a young, possibly untalented offense.

What will this season mean? Are the Mendenhall critics finally being proven right? Has his recruiting left the cupboard even more bare than how Gary Crowton left it? Impossible to say, but the possibility can’t be totally dismissed.

So as BYU football fans look for answers where none are likely to easily or quickly emerge, many will stop watching. I don’t blame them; it’s painful to watch this team, and some may feel that the sleepless nights and tension filled Saturdays aren’t worth it.

But I will keep watching. Maybe it’s just wanting to see Jake Heaps mature. Maybe it’s believing the team will get better. Maybe I’m a masochist.

I will be there watching next week, cheering the Cougs, hoping for the best. Because that’s all I can do.

Game 5: BYU visits Utah State

Romney Stadium (Logan, Utah)

6:00 pm MST

Kickoff forecast: 86 degrees, sunny

Since beating BYU 20-17 in 1982, Utah State has won only once: a 56-53 win in 1993 in Logan. That’s 20-1 for BYU in a 27-year span. Without getting too flippant, the Aggies have had a little trouble with the Cougars over the past couple of decades.

During most of this time period (and certainly recently), USU hasn’t really had a good program, bouncing around conferences and losing a bucket full of games. Yes, Gary Anderson has done an admirable job in his season + at the helm, but this is still a program deep in rebuilding, and being left behind in the weakened WAC will only set the program back further.

As far as this match-up is concerned, Utah State is a balanced and decent offensive team. They do not have the explosive speed on offense the Cougars have seen against Florida State and Nevada, but they mix the ball around with 2-3 RBs, and senior QB Diondre Borel (yes, that is his stage name) can be dangerous with his legs, but is sometimes inaccurate. Mobile QBs have hurt BYU so far this season, and no doubt Borel will take advantage of that.

Defensively the Aggies are struggling. They’re giving up almost 33 points and 400 yards per game. This could be the prescription Jake Heaps and the Cougars offense needs. I believe that the offense will get it going. We could see Jake’s first 300-yard game, and Di Luigi may approach 200 yards total offense.

In my recent season prediction update,  I put BYU’s win probability at 80%, and since I just wrote that a couple of days ago, I’m sticking to it. BYU will final put it together offensively, winning 38-17 and building momentum for the rest of the conference schedule.

– Adam

No. 10 in your programs, No. 1 in your hearts

If there has been a bright spot this season for the Cougar offense, it is the performance of JJ Di Luigi. When it became clear that Harvey Unga was not going to be coming back to BYU to play football it appeared to many Cougar fans that the offense was in some serious trouble. For many, the presence of Unga in the backfield could make a freshman quarterback more comfortable. A solid running game would allow the quarterback to do some things. With Unga gone BYU was now in the positon of replacing all the ball handlers with the exception of the receivers. Quarterback, Running Back, Tight Ends all new. There has been alot of talk concerning how the quarterback situation has panned out. I think we are at a point where Di Luigi deserves some love.

After four games JJ Di Luigi leads the team in both yards rushing (332) and yards receiving (200). He has contributed an average of 141.8 yards per game. He has been, by far, the highest contributor on the offense. A handful of times he has been wide open in the middle of the field in crucial situations and been able to convert third downs or take it to the house. He is also proving to be an elusive runner. Not many people were expecting JJ to become the primary part of the offense. There was, and still is,  alot of talk about Quezada and there are big expectations for Hague. But right now, it’s been all JJ all day. Had we all been paying attention we may have seen this coming. He is not surprised.

In August of 2009, byucougars.com hosted a chat session with Di Luigi. His comments about his role on the team in 2009 shed some light on how he came to 2010 so well prepared. When asked what he saw as his role in 2009 he replied, “I feel my role is to be a playmaker and to not lose momentum for the offense when harvey is out of the game.” In 2010, that is exactly what he has been asked to do for an offense that lost alot more than Unga. In that chat session he was also asked about what he had done to prepare himself to make an impact in the backfield in 2009. He said, “I worked on everything starting with my position mastery, such as ball security, knowing my blocking assignment, my route running and hole reads. once I get that down it allows me to be in position to make big plays bigger. I also worked on my speed and quickness which will help a lot in avoiding defenses.” When BYU faced Tulane without harvey Unga in 2009, Di Luigi rushed for 71 yards. He was splitting time with Brian Kariya that day. Kariya seemed to get alot of attention after the first couple of games. With the same amount of carries in New Orleans Di Luigi covered more ground and scored 2 touchdowns to Kariya’s 1.The work that Di Luigi put into preparing for the 2009 season has become a key component for a struggling offense in 2010. He has stepped in for the departed Harvey Unga and provided some semblance of consistency to an offensive unit still searching for it’s identity.

The story of Di Luigi’s contribution has been somewhat overshadowed by all of the other things that are going on with the Cougars right now. Personnel changes, injuries and conference realignment have garnered much of the spotlight. As the offensive unit begins to take shape and get into a rhythm Di Luigi’s contribution is going to become even more important. His success is tied to each of those major stories and soon his performance will no longer be overshadowed by “everything else” that is going on. As all of these other stories pan out and find resolution we will find that JJ Di Luigi will be a major part of the story for this team as the 2010 season progresses and into 2011. He’s worked hard. He deserves the attention.

– Matt

Looking forward: How will BYU do the rest of the season?

When I previewed the 2010 season, I thought the Cougars would end up at 10-2. I was wrong, as we’re already sitting at 1-3 and there are both reasons for despair and reasons for optimism. I thought the offense would be good (has not been true) and the defense would be good enough (which also hasn’t been true). After four weeks, it’s time to look back at the future schedule and prognosticate again.

2010 Records and AP ranking in parentheses.

@ Utah State, Oct. 1 (1-3, UR)
After a decent showing against Oklahoma (a 31-24 loss) Aggie Nation probably felt pretty good. Then came a home victory against Idaho State. One win and one quality loss. But since then, the wheels have come off, with subsequent losses to Fresno St. and San Diego State. So the Aggies are back where they usually are — near the bottom of the country, with a poor offense and an even worse defense.

Adam’s win probability: 80% (Preseason: 90%)
Why it isn’t higher: BYU has not proven they can beat lesser teams on the road yet.
Why it isn’t lower: Utah State stinks.

San Diego State, Oct. 9 (3-1, UR)
So far so good for the Aztecs. Three wins: Nicholls St., New Mexico State, and Utah St. One loss: Missouri. BYU should be in good shape for one reason: we don’t have ‘State’ in our name. So far the Aztecs are racking up yards and playing good D, but the competition has been extremely suspect. I think RB Ronnie Hillman and QB Ryan Lindley will tear up the Cougar D, but the offense will have enough firepower and experience by then to rip-up the SDSU defense.

Adam’s win probability: 75% (preseason: 90%)
Why it isn’t higher: The Aztecs have a good offense, and just because they haven’t played very good opponents doesn’t automatically make them bad.
Why it isn’t lower: Their defense will give up 30+ points.

@ TCU, Oct 16 (4-0, #5)
This is likely going to be a long day for Jake Heaps. The Hornfrogs have a top ten defense, and their offense is currently 23rd in the nation. This is not a good matchup for the Cougars (or the rest of the MWC).

Adam’s win probability: 15% (Preseason: 30%)
Why it isn’t higher: TCU is the better team. Their defense will shut down BYU’s inexperienced offense.
Why it isn’t lower: BYU’s offense and defense may have figured things out by then.

Wyoming, Oct. 23 (1-3, UR)
The Cowboys are atrocious. Since beating lowly Southern Utah they’ve been trounced 105-27. The Wyoming defense and offense rank in the bottom ten in the nation. I could QB this team in Provo and we could still win.

Adam’s win probability: 95% (same as preseason)
Why this isn’t higher: Come on.
Why this isn’t lower: Wyoming stinks.

UNLV, Nov. 6 (1-3, UR)
I mentioned in the preseason review that UNLV hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2000; this season will be no different. The Rebels are not playing well, and there’s no real reason for optimism. The defense has been OK, but offense is awful. They will probably win 2 or at the most 3 games all season.

Adam’s win probability: 90% (preseason 95%)
Why this isn’t higher: Stuff happens.
Why this isn’t lower: The Rebels are not good.

@ Colorado State, Nov. 13 (1-3, UR)
Thank goodness the MWC stinks this season in a rebuilding year for BYU. The Rams are much like the Rebels, but a little in the reverse. The offense is OK, the defense stinks. They did beat an OK Idaho team, but this is not your dad’s Rams.

Adam’s win probability: 85% (same as preseason)
Why this isn’t higher: It is a road game
Why this isn’t lower: Even when CSU was good, they had trouble beating the Cougars. They’re not good.

New Mexico, Nov. 20 (0-4, UR)
The crappy MWC portion of the BYU schedule continues. The Lobos are making a solid case for the worst team in the FBS. They have yet to give up less than 45 points (and that was against UNLV), and their best offensive output was 17 points against Texas Tech.

Adam’s win probability: 95%
Why this isn’t higher: This is as high as I go
Why this isn’t lower: Against possibly the worst team in the country, this is as low as I will go

@ Utah, Nov. 27 (4-0, 13)
The Utes have played well, but the strength of their schedule has been pretty sub par. Still, since struggling some in the season-opening OT win against Pitt, Utah has steamrolled its lesser competition. The defense has ranked as the best in the conference, but it is probably a notch below TCU in actuality. And Terrance Cain currently leads the nation in pass efficiency.

Adam’s win probability: 30% (Preseason : 55%)
Why this isn’t higher: This pains me, but I’m being realistic.
Why this isn’t lower: There’s a very good chance BYU’s offense is humming by November, especially after beating up on the dredges of the MWC.

Mathematical Prediction: 5.65 wins in the 8 remaining.

If you round that up to 6, that would be a 7-5, which I think would be a good season from hear going forward. With TCU likely in a BCS Bowl, BYU may still be chosen over Utah to represent the MWC in the Las Vegas Bowl. Go Cougars!

– Adam

Game 4: Lessons learned against Nevada

I watched the Nevada game with my father, who’s been a BYU football fan since before the forward pass. Everything that happens with the Cougars happens in a historical context for him. Because he lives in Houston and I live in Wisconsin, I don’t watch many games with him anymore, and it was great to get his perspective after watching four quarters of mainly inept play on both sides of the ball. My dad’s take: this team is going to be very good, maybe even this season, but certainly next year in our first year as an independent.

So let’s start with the signs of despair, and then move on to the signs of optimism.

Signs of Despair

Play Calling
Criticizing play calling is the favorite pastime of armchair coaches everywhere. When Norm Chow was OC for the Cougs, he was second-guessed on a weekly basis (I was one of those people), but then we really wished he would come back after watching the play calling get even worse in the Crowton Era of Insanity. So I enter this territory realizing that my criticism may seem hallow as a guy who last played football in 5th grade and has never coached at any level.

But man Anae ticks me off sometimes. In the 3rd quarter, BYU was driving down 24-10. Heaps was looking pretty decent, though his longest pass on the drive was for 16 yards. Still, the offense was clicking. But it stalled, and it was 4th and 4 on the Nevada 16-yard line.  In a situation like this, I want the ball in the hand of one of my real play makers, which in 2010 for BYU looks to be Di Luigi and Jacobsen. What call do we get? A dive play off the left side for Kariya. I don’t have anything against Kariya; he’s a good back who deserves to be in the rotation. But he’s probably you’re third best running option (I like Quezada better), and he’s not the player you give it to on 4th and 4.

So yeah, I worry about Anae’s play calling with this current group of players.

Defensive holes
The Cougs are 102nd in the nation in total defense. Let that sink in. Teams below us include Western Kentucky, Duke, Wyoming, New Mexico, and the nation’s worse, Bowling Green. This is not a good group to be in.

An optimist might point out that the defense solidified in the second half, holding the potent Nevada pistol attack to three points in the final two quarters. There certainly is reason for hope there. But Nevada played keep away in the second half, dialed back the play calling, and got important first downs when then needed to. Yes, the defense played better, but we’re grading on a curve.

Signs of Optimism

The Chosen One
If you look at Jake Heaps line, it’s nothing special: 24-for-45, 229 yards, no TDs, no INTs. He missed a lot of long passes, and the coaching staff called several fade routes near the endzone, only one of which he threw well. Some might say he looked pretty mediocre.

But you don’t come to Rise and Shout for that kind of surface level analysis. I will join the chorus of believers: Heaps is going to be awesome. How good is he going to be? Impossible to tell, but this was a pretty good debut. He made good reads, missed some throws, only made one ‘oh crap’ throw, and showed good pocket awareness. He also developed some chemistry with Jacobsen (4-44) and Hoffman (4-74), which is key for the remainder of season. Bold prediction: He throws for 400+ yards at least once this season.

Di Luigi = Italian for Awesome
Before the start of the season, I told my brother Matt that Di Luigi would not be enough as a featured back for BYU, that Unga’s departure would mean the running game would be nearly useless for the Cougars. I was wrong.

My father described his running style this way: It’s like he’s running in a tunnel where only he can see the walls. I am now a Di Luigi convert. He has been the brightest star for BYU’s offense in a year of disappointment, and the offensive struggles may have masked just how good he’s been. Game 1: 17-152 (total touches-yards). Game 2: 10-128. Game 3: 21-129. Game 4: 23-123. I love what he’s bringing, and I think he needs to touch the ball 20-25 times a game in order for BYU’s offense to hit its potential.

Game 4: BYU hosts Nevada

Photo by David Mangum

Lavel Edwards Stadium (Provo, UT)

6:00 pm EST

Kickoff forecast: 82 degrees, sunny

In hisweekly press conference, when asked about playing the position of the underdog again this week Bronco Mendenhall stated, “It’s a role that we’ve earned to this point. We haven’t played at a high enough level yet to be considered the favorite. We’re used to being the favorite, but our team hasn’t played at that level. Nevada is. I just watched their game against Cal and they’re a very good football team. They’re playing well.” I think that really sums up what we are looking at for the game this weekend.

Nevada gave up 432 yards against Eastern Washington, 272 against Colorado State and 502 yards against Cal. They produced 553, 631 and 497 yards respectively against those same teams. They have only held one of their three opponents under 20 points, but when you score 50 points a game you can get away with that.

BYU’s defense will need to play assignment football in this one. Nevada QB Kaepernick and RB Taua both rushed for about 150 yards a piece last week on their way to beating Cal. These assignments will not be as difficult as Air Force. BYU has not seen as much of the pistol formation as they will today. Open field tackling will be key in shutting down this offense. Nevada is slightly more effective in the air than Air Force. Kaepernick can throw a little, but their bread and butter is on the ground. BYU is a little banged up after Florida State. Andrew Rich reportedly suffered a “full body contusion” and Scott Thomas also got beat up. A “full body contusion” sounds pretty bad, but if Andrew Rich is still conscious he’s going to play. He’s an extremely tough football player. I felt good about the play of Travis Uale and Corby Eason who both stepped in after injuries last week. Contrary to my fears at the beginning of the season, the defense will perform just as well with either of these two in the game. Our pass defense can defend their passing attack. This is going to come down to playing assignments making tackles in open space. If they can’t tackle Kaepernick on the first shot, it might get ugly. If they can pin down Kaepernick like they did Jake Locker, BYU will win this game.

The big news of this week is obviously the announcement of Riley Nelson’s injury and that Jake Heaps has become the starter. Many people, including myself, have been waiting for a single starter to be named. Now that it has happened we all need to be sure to keep some perspective on this. Having been named the starter this week does not replace all of the reps Jake Heaps did not get in spring or fall practice. Nevermind the time not spent in the past three weeks during game preparation. While he has seen alot of reps this week, he is still going to need some time to grow into this role. He has a few things going for him. He is extremely talented and very confident. He has a veteran core of receivers (minus the suspended Chambers) and a solid offensive line. He will need to make reads quicker and get rid of the football. I don’t think he is going to see the type of pass rush that FSU threw at him. Nevada does bring a DE that has turned heads in the past. His name is Dontay Moch. He will get into the backfield a little. However, the rest of the Wolfpack defense does not appear to have the same coverage and pass rush ability that FSU brought. For that reason I think that Jake Heaps will do better overall and he won’t take a half dozen sacks. Receivers will be open and BYU should be able to run the ball with DiLuigi. I expect DiLuigi to put up the same kinds of numbers he has all year. There is no reason that BYU can’t get over 24 points in this game. Nevada’s defense appears vulnerable when looking at the stats. They are also streaky. This is a good situation for Jake Heaps and the rest of the offense.

BYU has not scored in the fourth quarter this year. If they expect to compete in this one, they will need to perform at a high level at least into the fourth quarter if not overtime. Nevada has the ability to score quickly and often. If the defense can’t get it together then expect a Nevada offensive festival that will inspire nightmares. Of the four teams BYU has faced this year Nevada is somewhere in the middle of the pack. They are better than Washington, but I don’t think they are better than Air Force or FSU.

In his preseason post Adam gave BYU a 75% chance of winning this game. He pointed out some key facts. One of those being that Nevada lost to every good team they played last year. They have beat Cal in 2010 but they gave up 500 yards in the process. There’s still a lot of uncertainty for BYU right now. Not knowing which BYU defense will show up I am giving BYU a 65% chance of winning this game. 10% of that is strictly because the game is in Provo.  BYU needs to prevent this from becoming a shootout. Nevada is built for that type of game. BYU might be, but nobody will know that for sure until the new personnel face one. Bottom line: This is a fairly even game and a winnable matchup for BYU. Right now, Nevada has more momentum going their way. For BYU this is not quite a must win, but it’s pretty close. BYU gets the win in Provo.

Go Cougars!

-Matt

Trusting Bronco

Photo by David Mangum

 First off let me admit that I have been pretty critical of how things have played out so far this year. I have made several comments about coaches letting indecision run the team and making decisons by defaulting to the status quo. This post is not an attempt to renege all of that criticism. Right now, I don’t understand or agree with alot of the things that the coaches have done this year. This post is an attempt to be fair to a coach that has done some amazing things for BYU football. This is a man that has earned the trust of the fans and gained a certain amount of coaching capital. In 2010 Bronco Mendenhall is going to spend some, if not all, of that capital. After all, he has earned it. So, here are a few reasons that I trust Bronco Mendenhall even though the team is driving me crazy right now.

1.) 11-2. The Cougars have been 11-2 three times in the past five years. In another season they finished 10-3. It’s almost unfair to include the first year Bronco was head coach. The team went 6-6, but Mendenhall was still cleaning up after that one coach that nobody ever talks about anymore. In the five years just before Bronco Mendenhall took the helm, the team finished above .500 a single time. Coincendentally, that season was the year of the Domanator. While I am willing to extend this coaching capital to Mendenhall, I am a little less liberal with the rest of the offensive staff right now. Bottom Line: Mendenhall has won a large number of games since he took over. He has put the program in a great position. People criticized him for some of his early moves and he has still been very successful. This is part of what has earned him the right to do some unpopular things. I think Bronco works for the benefit of the team and the program. He’s been right about many things in the past. With 11-2 Bronco has earned more coaching capital than I have given him credit for.

2.) John Beck and Max Hall. John Beck’s numbers took a steep upward climb after Mendenhall was put in charge. I know Mendenhall was running the defense at that point. But if he answers for all of the failures, he gets to answer for the success. In 2004 (the Before Mendenhall Era), Beck threw for 2,563 yards and 15 TD . In 2005 (After Mendenhall), Beck threw for 3,709 yards and 27 TDs. In 2006 it got even better. Quarterbacks have thrived since Mendenhall arrived. I won’t even get into Max Hall’s career. Let’s just say he threw for 11,365 yards and 94 touchdowns. While I still question what has taken place at the quarterback position this year. Mendenhall has put together some teams with great quarterback performance. Both of these guys had their moments and some of these teams lost a game or two early in the year. But John Beck and Max Hall should remind us that Mendehall knows what he is doing with quarterbacks, even if we don’t understand it. He has been pretty clear that had Nelson not been injured, the two QB system was going to continue. While I hate to see this resolved with an injury, it looks like there should be some stability at the quarterback situation now and Heaps will have a fair chance to become something special. At the end of the day though, based on the past, there is no reason not to trust Mendenhall on this.

3.) Defeating Utah. He’s beat Utah 3 out of 5 times. Those last second and overtime wins are epic. I don’t measure the success of a season against Utah. However, I love to see BYU win that game. Not alot of capital here, but enough for me to mention it. This one goes away if Utah evens it up this year. 

4.) Championships. 2 outright conference championships and 4 top 25 AP rankings. BYU has gotten it done under Coach Mendenhall.

5.) Harvey Unga. If I recall correctly, Harvey Unga was originally going to attend school somewhere else. I will give Bronco Mendenhall (and the football coaching staff) the credit for getting Harvey Unga to BYU. I am using Harvey as an example here of some of the great recruiting that Mendenhall and his staff have done. I really like the “what do you have to offer BYU?” approach they take. It is a little unorthodox and one would wonder if it is wise for a school like BYU. Turns out that it is a great approach for BYU and a great way to get players that really want to be there. Didn’t Jake Heaps get some offers from some pretty big time programs? The coach brought the number one football recruit in the country to BYU without promising him the starting job. Mendenhall is clearly presenting the program in a way that makes good players want to play at BYU.

6.) Good Uniforms. I was at BYU for the bibs that included that random tan pinstrip down the side of the pants. When that one coach was in charge we fielded some awful looking uniforms. Thank you Bronco for bringing some sanity back to the uniform situation. We were in danger of becoming Oregon or Va. Tech with ridiculous uniforms. Thank you again Coach.

7.) Throwback Uniforms. I get choked up talking about the throwback blue uniforms that BYU wore against Utah and in the Las Vegas Bowl last year. Thank You BYU and Bronco Mendenhall. The uniform situation represents more than colors and designs. It represents a focus on a winning tradition and a culture of success in the program. This is what Bronco Mendenhall has brought back to BYU. For this he deserves a little bit of wiggle room.

8.) Bowl Wins. 3 bowl wins in 5 years.

Eight seems like an odd place to stop. I am sure there are some things missing in here. Feel free to round the list out with comments. Let it be noted that I started writing this before Riley Nelson announced his injury. There are still a few things that make all of Cougar Nation nervous. I don’t think that the questions and wonderings aloud are out of line. I think some of these decisons are questionable. However, Bronco has been a consistent performer and done things that nobody expected five years ago. He has earned the right to step out of the box and make us all a little crazy. I understand that he does not make his decisions based on my opinion or anybody else’s for that matter. That’s part of what we all love about him. It’s what he has done since he got to BYU and what he will do in the future. He’s made this all work before. I am confident that his streak will continue in 2010.

Go Cougars!

-Matt

Mediocre Seasons Can Lead to Better Things

Now that Riley Nelson’s season has ended due to surgery, the Cougars will move on presumably with Jake Heaps as the starter. Unless of course the coaching staff decides to do a Heaps-Lark QB rotation. (Start breathing again. I’m just kidding.)

Now, before you start celebrating too wildly (if you were in the Heaps camp) or get too depressed (if you were in the Nelson camp), keep this in mind: Heaps having a highly successful season, both statistically and leading BYU to a great record, is without historical precedent at BYU. First off, there aren’t many QBs who have played as freshmen at BYU. College football is difficult for any true freshman to learn, especially a complicated passing offense for a QB. And the increased speed of the collegiate game can amplify the mistakes of a QB very quickly.

Second, many of the best QBs in BYU history have had learning seasons. I will reference two that are particularly illustrative. First, it’s Steve Young’s 1982. Did you realize that Young wasn’t really that good in 1982?

Now, you may think that I’m doing a little bit of revisionist history here. It’s not like Young was awful in 1982. He threw for 3100 yards, and ran for more than 400 yards and 10 TDs. But his TD-Int ratio was a pedestrian 1:1, and the Cougars finished 8-4, with losses to an 8-5 Air Force team, as well as out of conference losses to Georgia and Utah State. And then BYU was crushed by Ohio State 47-17 in the Holiday Bowl. Awful season? No, but after going 34-4 the previous three seasons, and seeing future NFL QBs Jim McMahon and Marc Wilson put up great numbers, this was a step back for the Cougar program.

Of course, this wasn’t all about Young. The defense wasn’t great, especially when you considered how many bad teams BYU played that season, and was vulnerable to good rushing teams (hello Air Force). By the standards set earlier in the 80s, it was a mediocre season.

Fast forward to 1995. It was another new QB, Steve Sarkisian. After a pretty good 10-3 season in 1994, the Sarkisian-led Cougars finished 7-4. The Cougars lost to pretty much every good team they played. Much like 1982, the defense was young and vulnerable to the ground game.

So why do I bring up 1982 and 1995? Because the mediocrity of these seasons led to two of the greatest seasons in BYU history. Young was unbelievably good in 1983, leading the Cougars to a 11-1 record and a No. 7 finish in the AP rankings. Sarkisian would get better in 1996, and BYU would go 14-1, beating Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl to finish No. 5.

What does this have to do with 2010? This team is likely to be mediocre. The defense is young. Jake Heaps is not likely to light the world on fire in his first season out of high school. But if the defense gels, if Heaps is really the heir of the BYU QB greatness, we may remember 2010 as the mediocre season that led to an historic 2011 season.

– Adam

Week Three: BYU loses at Florida State

BYU wore all white uniforms for the first time since 2003. The uniforms looked great. The team came up short as the Cougars dropped the second of back to back losses. The final score of 34-10 only tells part of the story in this one. While the Cougs are now 1-2, they actually looked better than they did against Air Force and perhaps against Washington. A few areas have been consistent problems for the Cougars and contributed to the losing effort today: dropped passes, bad tackling and bad play calling. The Cougars played more disciplined defense and often found themselves in the right postition to make a play. Being in the right place is good. Whiffing on an open field tackle is bad. Overall, the young players are showing improvement. The coaching staff failed to make any meaningful adjustments at half time for the second week in a row.

Jake Heaps. Everybody appears more comfortable when he is in the game. Once he got into a rhythm he looked pretty good. A few early passes were off target and he did get sacked a bunch (FSU tallied 8 sacks today) but he seemed to settle down and get into a rhythm at times. The coaches seem to have an easier time making better play calls when Heaps is in. Nelson did not look good. He is clearly not comfortable throwing the ball and defenses will never take his ability to throw seriously. All four of his passes today were lame ducks.  Heaps looked better to me. I think its time to give him the keys and see what he can do for the next four years. I don’t think he is ready to win the Heisman, but I think he is more prepared to be the quarterback for this team. The offense BYU runs, when he is in the game, will provide the greatest chance at success over the course of the season. This was a good experience for Jake Heaps. He needs to have experiences like this in order to become great. Holding him back in games and practice at this point will just delay his development. I don’t see the upside of playing Nelson other than a few snaps in each game. Before the season I wondered about Heaps’ ability to come in and play. It didn’t sound like he was blowing people away in practice. I stand by my earlier statement that neither of them are where they should be. But I think Heaps is the direction that the team needs to take at this point. He needs to be named the starter and the team needs to prepare with Heaps as the starter. They need to get him ready.

At the end of the day, it will not matter who the quarterback is if the receivers keep dropping passes. The week that Jerry Rice was inducted into the Hall of Fame I saw an interview where he discussed the transiton from Joe Montana to Steve Young. (I remembered it being part of his Hall of Fame induction speech, but I couldn’t find it there.) Rice talked about the difficulty of moving from a right handed passer to a left handed passer. Quick lesson: the ball spins  in opposite directions when thrown from opposite hands. Essentially, Rice said that he spent the entire summer getting someone to throw him left handed passes because he needed the time to adjust to the difference. I couldn’t find the Jerry Rice quote, but I did find an article in a California newspaper at least supporting the story. BYU has been asking their receivers to adjust between possessions, quarters and weeks. There is no Jerry Rice on this roster. If it is that big of a difference for him, it must be an issue for BYU’s receivers. I see no other reason that these receivers, sure handed for Max Hall in 2009, look like they are trying to catch passes with boxing gloves on. They need more practice with the quarterback they will be expected to catch from in the game. Passes, hand offs. rolling out. It’s all different when these quarterbacks are switched out.

The offensive play calling was predictable an unimaginative. At least once in the game a play was run to the right for no gain followed by a strikingly similar play to the left for no gain. The second quarter looked good. The offense couldn’t keep the momentum and had a hard time adjusting to what FSU’s defense was doing in the second half.

How about JJ DiLuigi? I love this guy. 96 yards rushing, 36 yards receiving. The bright spot on the offense. Kariya seems to be developing as a nice compliment to DiLuigi’s running style and gives the offense the chance to change things up situationally. I really like Mike Hague bowling over a defender on his single touch, a 13 yard reception. The offense showed some sparks of talent that need a little more time to mature. This will happen with reps. The less reps either quarterback gets, the longer it will take to develop the offense.

Last week the defense was consistently out of postition and did not play as a unit. Today they seemed consistently in position to make a play. Players stayed at home and covered their own assignments. Unfortunately, tackling is a large part of the reason a defender is on the field. So consistently being in position simply exposed the fact that the BYU defense does not tackle very well. It was often the third or fourth defender that made contact with a ball carrier. Several tacklers whiffed on dives. The defense gave up 121 yards in the first quarter. They brought that down to 94 yards in the second quarter. But it’s hard to win a game when the opposing defense racks up 427 yards of offense.

The time of possession battle ended up more even than it felt while watching the game. The problem was that BYU’s defense was on the field for long stretches. The defense was also put into a few bad situations as a result of the lack of productivity on offense. By halftime it looked like BYU might get away with a “bend don’t break” approach. The FSU staff made adjustments that BYU simply didn’t have answers for in the second half. “Bend don’t break” became “break”. The defense missed Steven Thomas in the second half after he left the game with a concussion.

It’s a pretty simple game. If you run faster, hit harder and tackle better than the other team, you will win. BYU was beat in all three of those categories today and lost. This becomes a learning experience and the team moves on. Moderate improvement over the last few weeks will at some point manifest itself as marked improvement. This team has the potential to be very good once they can put it all together.

-Matt

Game 3: BYU seeks redemption against FSU

Bobby Bowden Field at Doak S. Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, Florida)

3:30 pm EST

Kickoff forecast: 93 degrees, partly sunny, likely humid

Last season’s 54-28 loss to Florida State was deflating for BYU. After a season-opening victory against Oklahoma and a road win over Tulane, many Cougar fans were thinking BCS. “If they win the rest, it’s 1984 again baby!” But then came the Seminoles visit to Provo. Max Hall threw three INTs, part of 5 turnovers. Though the Cougars would finish 11-2 and had a great season, the loss to FSU kept the Cougars from possibly having a transcendent one.

For the Seminoles, the BYU win was a highlight in a season of turmoil. In Bobby Bowden’s final season, they finished 7-6 and way outside the national spotlight Seminole fans have become accustomed to.

FSU in 2010 doesn’t look a lot different from FSU in 2009, despite the new head coach. Senior QB Christian Ponder still leads the offense (and according to reports will start against the Cougars). Ponder was decent last season, throwing for 2700 yards and completing nearly 70 percent of his passes. But he didn’t stay healthy, and his replacement, then freshmen EJ Manuel, threw six interceptions in just 106 attempts. Not good.But Ponder did not look good in last week’s loss to Oklahoma. He was 11 for 28 with 2 picks, and he was sacked 4 times. Manuel relieved him and threw a couple of TDs in garbage time, but Ponder is still the man.

Florida State’s biggest problem in 2009 was its defense. The Seminoles gave up 30 points per game and 435 yards. Yikes. The only team they really dominated defensively last year was Jacksonville State. Though they struggled against both passing and rushing, they were particularly vulnerable to the run. They turned most teams into one of the best rushing teams in the country.

Last week’s Oklahoma loss was a repeat defensively. The Seminoles gave up 487 yards, including a whopping 394 through the air. They couldn’t pressure OU QB Landry Jones at all and he picked them apart from a too-comfortable pocket.  (You’ll noticed I’m not really including stats against Samford two weeks ago. I’m also not using stats from their spring game or a scrimmage versus a local high school.)

I’ve read a lot of pro-Jake Heaps commentators saying BYU has to throw deep and throw a lot beat FSU. I’m not sure that’s true. The Seminoles defense is vulnerable just about everywhere, and just because Oklahoma used the pass doesn’t mean FSU won’t give up a ton of rushing yards as the season goes on.

The big question is how can BYU best attack this weak defense. Heaps and the deep pass is probably the best way to go. If the Cougars had a big, Unga-like back who could punish the quick FSU defenders, manhandling the defense and keeping Ponder off the field would be best. FSU’s quick LBs are likely to negate the strengths of DiLuigi and Kariya in the running game though.

Mendenhall and his staff have announced Riley Nelson will start, and that both QBs will play. My uneducated guess is that you will see a rotation similar to the Washington game, and that whomever moves the ball better in the first half will get the bulk of the second half snaps. I hope they stick with one QB, but no comments this week by Mendenhall or Anae seem to indicate that.

The other big factor from this game is the humidity. Ninety-three degrees isn’t overly warm, but if the humidity gets high, we could see a lot of cramping Cougars in the second half. Friday’s humidity was a tolerable 40%, but it’s supposed to be higher on Saturday.

In my season preview, I gave BYU a 51% chance of beating Florida State on the road. After watching FSU get dismantled by Oklahoma and BYU get embarrassed by Air Force, I think the teams are evenly matched, but I believe FSU has the edge in this one. The odds makers are giving FSU a 10-point cushion, which I think is high. I’m now giving BYU a 40% chance at winning this one.

Go Cougs!

– Adam